Campaign notebook from afar
Greetings from Israel.
I was near the beach in Tel Aviv this morning when someone called out to me: "Warren Kinsella!” It was a Canadian from Toronto, someone who had moved here to escape antisemitism.
I spoke with her and her husband for a long time, as their dogs milled about us.
She was from Toronto. She considers herself Canadian. She was attending Humber College in Toronto and she encountered unbelievable amounts of extreme, egregious antisemitism. She was crying when she was telling me about it.
She had to leave. She had to move to Israel.
We talked a little bit about the election. She worries about the growth of antisemitism in Canada, and she said she doesn't feel that people in power are doing anything about it.
I couldn't argue with her. She asked me to take a selfie with her, and I said sure.
**
I got together with another Canadian friend, one who leads an organization that helps Israeli kids who are victims of terror attacks. She takes them to camps in Ontario, where they get to be just kids.
We sat on the beach in Tel Aviv, talking about the exchange rate, and the weather, and the political environment back home.
She, like every single other Jew I know, has abandoned the progressive side of the spectrum for the Conservative Party. She asked for the news.
She didn't like it, but I told her anyway: that there are credible reports that Pierre Poilievre is going to lose his own Ottawa-area seat to the red wave. How could that happen, she asked me.
“He ran a good campaign,” I said. “His big mistake happened long before the campaign started.”
He and his team didn't think Justin Trudeau was going to leave, and they weren't ready when he did. (They weren't ready for Trump attacking Canada, either, but none of us were ready for that. None of us predicted that.)
But losing an election that should've been in the bag? Losing to a political newbie, and not being ready for when Justin left?
Those were big mistakes. And unforgivable, pretty much.
**
Statements like this one seriously hurt Poilievre, as well. They're the kind of thing that a Prime Minister – or someone who wants to be Prime Minister – should never, ever say.
**
Someone asked me how the Conservative leader would feel when he lost his seat.
Secretly, I said, probably relieved.
If Mark Carney gets a majority government, there will be a civil war in the Conservative Party. There will be breakaway factions. There will be anger and recriminations. It will go on for a long time, and it will be ugly.
“Pierre won't want to be around for any of that,” I said. “And who can blame him. So that's why I think he and his family will be relieved to be out of it if the loss is a big one.”
**
And the loss could be very big. As I wrote for Postmedia and here, all the signs point towards a substantial Tory defeat.
My key point:
“Barring some extraordinary event, they are going to lose the election next week, perhaps badly. A Liberal majority seems probable. What do the Tories do, then?
If it's a Carney majority, and not a minority, Poilievre will be under immediate pressure to take responsibility and resign. Throwing his campaign strategists under the proverbial bus won't be enough: some Conservatives are going to be very, very angry. They will want him gone.
If Poilievre chooses to tough it out, he risks the same fate of Erin O'Toole and Andrew Scheer. The Conservative caucus has fired leaders before, and - if the seat count is bad - Tory MPs will likely do so again.
Outside the caucus, there will be rage.
Western Conservatives will commence beating the drum of separatism again. Danielle Smith will almost certainly signal her refusal to abide by laws passed by the hated Ottawa Liberals. And, possibly, the Conservative Party of Canada will cease to be.”
Could all of that happen? Maybe. Perhaps. We will find out very soon.
**
People here asked me if Mark Carney is antisemitic. I said no. I said I don't believe that. I pointed to the statement he released just today.
“Tonight at sundown, we join Jewish communities in Canada and around the world in marking the beginning of Yom HaShoah.
As we honour the memory of the more than six million Jews systematically murdered in the Holocaust, let us recommit ourselves to action — so no Jewish Canadian has to walk our streets in fear, simply because they are Jewish.
Together, we must work to preserve the memory of those survivors still with us, educate the next generation, and fight the rising tides of antisemitism and Holocaust denial.
80 years on from the liberation of Auschwitz Birkenau, “Never Again” is not just a promise or phrase — it is our solemn responsibility. This is particularly relevant as we continue to pray for the release of all hostages held by Hamas following the attacks of October 7 — the deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust.
In the year ahead, let us act on our responsibility and work to build a Canada where Jewish life proudly flourishes, without fear or intimidation.”
It was a good statement. But, with nearly 20 of his caucus or candidates embracing a position that is anti-Israel and antisemitic? With at least one of his advisors embracing parlor room antisemitism?
There are big problems within the Liberal Party. There will be work to do.
**
Anyway. Have to get back to the documentary, and also get ready for some Sun Media videos. Someone who lives here told me that they watch our videos! How cool is that?
So, over and out. This is Warren, reporting from Tel Aviv.
