Campaign notebook: it's settled in
The Tories are losing. Perhaps bigly.
One year ago: I warned them. Did they listen? Of course not. No one listens to me.
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Was just on AM640’s morning show - I used to be a 1010 guy, but no longer – and the subject of the Conservative Party's rallies came up. The Globe and Mail's Robyn Urback was on as well.
She and I made the same point: you can tell that Poilievre's conspiracy-theorist loons are getting ready to make the same false claim. Namely, we are the ones who have huge huge rallies, we still lost the election, the election was rigged, the Liberals cheated etc. Blah blah blah. The Trump playbook, in other words.
Their rallies are visually-impressive, I acknowledged. But this isn’t the 1800s: election victories aren't fashioned out of rallies at train stops. Kamala Harris also had huge rallies in her presidential campaign, and she still lost.
What matters most, I said, is what every single poster is now saying: the Liberals are ahead, and in some cases way ahead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, had a 30-point lead at the start of the year and they blew it.
Could every single pollster be wrong? That's what the Tory fringe will say. But it won't change the outcome.
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Can anything change the outcome, even though the majority of voters have now settled in?
There are plenty of things that should matter: Mark Carney seemingly accusing Israel of genocide. The unanswered questions about the Liberal leader’s holdings. The Chinese regime’s preference for Team Carney, and some of the candidates who make up Team Carney.
All of those things are very, very important. But they are dwarfed by the ballot question in election 2025. Which is, who is the best candidate to represent Canada in the Trump era?
Voters have answered that question. It’s not Pierre Poilievre.
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And evangelicals support this moron.
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Carney's "genocide" statement will pooch his candidates in ridings where the Jewish vote matters. There's about 14 of them. Right now, that could spell the difference between majority/minority. Pretty dumb.
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Why? Here’s a video my Facts Matter anti-bigotry group did.
17 antisemitic incidents per day. That’s one every hour and 25 minutes — right here in Canada. That is not Canada. That is not who we are. It’s time to speak up, stand together, and push back against the rising tide of hate. Silence is not an option.
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Bottom line on this, the end of week three in Election 2025: at this point, voters are settling in with their choice. And the majority have chosen Carney’s Liberals.
Tories may not like the numbers, but the numbers don’t lie, in this case.
Mark Carney’s response to a Hamas supporter (NOT a heckler) about a “genocide happening in Palestine” will not damage his chances for a majority. I suspect this comment will have the opposite effect. The Jewish voters in the 14 ridings alluded to in this article do not vote as a monolith. Carney’s comments won’t cause a seismic shift of support towards the Conservative camp. What may happen is a shift towards the Liberal camp from NDP supporters who view Carney’s position on this issue more aligned with theirs.
conservatives lost 30 pts. why? Liberals defecting to conservatives to complain about Trudeau? now they are back to the promised land? A new leader they like...btw it was mentioned before me...
Evangelicals are super rich...Tammy Fay Baker and Jim Baker were evangelicals as well as Joyce Meyers, and another guy, super rich. I followed for a bit to see what they were about...yes $$
and lots of it...JMO
Antisemitism has always been around but in the shadows. now its in the open since Oct 7th....religion preaches to be kind and love one another...where does this put the Palestinians?
I'm not giving up on Pierre...the debates might make some waves, but some conservative followers give conservatives a bad name at least on x. but, there are questionable Liberals also. so, tit for tat.
.Liberals see the conservatives as uneducated blue collar workers. Well most have a degree in some field and some don't...they work in restraunts and factories... but are honest people...
A president once said to me when his company was on strike, we can do without the pencil pushers but not the workers...guess he need AI. but he was right.
good article.....