Campaign notebook: ten things on the the final weekend
Ten quick observations.
I'm in Israel, I'm watching things from a great distance, and I’ve filed what will be my final column during the campaign. I'll put that up later.
In the meantime, here are ten observations about the 2025 election campaign. They are in no particular order, and they may not even be particularly important. There are just things that occurred to me.
Here goes.
After every campaign concludes, journalists always say something along the lines of: “that was the ugliest election campaign ever. Hoo boy.” Except, at least this year, it's not true. There were stupid old men flipping the bird at cameras, yes, and people yelling at each other outside rallies, and candidates and staff saying awful things online. But honestly, it wasn't all that nasty. It was average.
Why did the Conservatives wait until after voting was underway to release their platform? Why did they amend it after they released it? It really looked pretty amateurish. It looked rookie. If your platform is such an afterthought, then don't bother. Don’t waste our time, Team Blue.
I did a video yesterday from Jaffa with Adrienne Batra and Brian Lilley. Brian did something that I've never seen him do before: he repeatedly and deliberately called Mark Carney a liar. Editors, as Brian pointed out, don't like it when you use that word (it’s actionable). But Brian said Carney was a liar over and over. Is he? Let’s just say this: I think the Liberal leader hasn't learned one of the Kinsellian Rules™️: the truth is like water. It always finds a way out. Always.
Still on Carney, I really do feel that his position on Israel and antisemitism is shameful. Throughout the campaign, I kept hoping that he would say something meaningful, or adopt the position that every single previous Liberal leader – with the exception of Justin Trudeau, natch – has had: namely, Israel is our ally, antisemitism is bad, I will always use the legislative tools at my disposal to stamp out hate. Carney didn’t do that. Which is shameful and wrong. It's made things measurably worse.
I'll say this about him, however: for somebody who has never run for high political office before, Carney didn't really fall flat on his face, did he? I expected him to. Running for Prime Minister, and being Prime Minister, isn’t one of those “learn while doing the job” things. But Carney did well - obviously. Among other things, it suggests that nobody needs political advisors or strategists anymore. Ha!
Jenni Byrne can handle herself, but I really think a lot of people who should know better have been exceptionally shitty to her during this campaign. Has there been a lot of sexism been the mix, there? Of course. When a guy politico gets tough? It’s always fine. He’s doing his job. Politics is a tough business! But when a female politico does it? She’s “shrill.” She’s “a bitch.” Ipso facto, another Kinsellian Axiom™️: John and Paul actually broke up the band. But Yoko will always get blamed for it.
Speaking of politicos: my friend Andrew Bevan was one of the smart people who ran the Carney campaign. Andrew has done an exceptional job with a total political newbie (see point five above), and his team didn’t make many mistakes (their candidate did, see point four, above). Bonus: Andrew is a great, regular guy. Humble, quiet, decent.
We in the media had a Tory leader who wouldn’t let us travel with him (which was dumb) and a Grit leader who’d get very condescending when we asked pretty basic questions (ditto). But I think the media did a good job covering this election, notwithstanding that. Kudos to us.
I think Jagmeet is a goner; Elizabeth May, too. Neither will be missed. Yves Francois Blanchet? He could be forced to walk the plank, too, if the Bloc’s little polling surge in recent days turns out to be an illusion. Poilievre? As noted elsewhere on my Substack, if Carney gets a majority, I think he’s a goner, too. If it’s a minority, he may live to fight another day. If Poilievre had been the one winning a majority, Carney wouldn’t have stuck around. No way. Same with a minority: he would’ve booked. As things stand now, Carney is the guy who will be staying put.
Who is going to win? Carney. Forget the rallies and the top line polling: Poilievre has got too much wasted vote on the prairies. It’s going to be a Liberal majority. Sorry, Tories.
Re: Lilley’s comments on Carney’s veracity, I expect you’ll have considerable column fodder over the next few years!
Yesterday I spoke with a lady, who emigrated here 28 years ago fro. Iran. She said that if Carney wins, Canada becomes an islamist state. Perhaps she knows what she is talking about.