Campaign notebook from afar
Nobody is paying attention to Canada in Washington. Maybe that’s a good thing.
Greetings, again, from Washington DC. I wish to assure a worried Canadian nation that no one is paying attention to us down here.
I think that is a good thing.
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I stand corrected: there was one late mention of us on CNN last night, on a panel about tariffs. But most of the talk was about how a pair of running shoes is about to cost you a mortgage payment in the United States.
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In my few spare moments, I have been reflecting on the fate of Pierre Poilievre. Because, let’s be honest: the polls do not portend glad tidings for Team Blue.
From a 30 point lead at the start of the year to now – the very real prospect of Mark Carney winning a substantial majority government. How did this happen?
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As in all things political, there are lots of reasons. Trudeau leaving, Trump arriving, tariffs, you name it. But the Conservative leader is part of the problem, too.
“Canada is broken,“ angry Trumpy soundbites, angry Trumpy policy, a base that is implicitly or explicitly MAGA-ish. Lots of mistakes were made.
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So, what happens if Poilievre loses? What happens if he loses badly?
In normal political circumstances, he would be tarred and feathered and run out of town on a rail. Perhaps he will head off to the private sector, for what would be really the first time, if he loses badly on election night.
But what if he decides to stick around? What then?
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I don’t know the zeitgeist of the Conservative Party of Canada well enough to predict what would happen if he decides to tough it out. I do know that, in the Liberal Party of Canada, they wouldn’t give him a chance. He would be gone before the sun came up. But Poilievre is in a different position.
His rallies are proof of that, as is the fanatical devotion of his base. Critically, his total control of the national executive would assist him in staying on, as well.
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But to blow a 30-point lead in six weeks? To pooch an election that was in the bag for more than two years?
Some Tories will want an accounting for that. They will want Poilievre and his key advisors gone. They will be livid that they have lost a shot at government for the fourth time in a row.
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Again, I can’t predict what is going to happen. But it is certainly going to be interesting if Pierre Poilievre loses the election.
Which almost all of the polls, presently, say is going to happen.
If Pierre Poilievre’s most grievous offense is saying “Canada is broken”, then he would be destined to lose the election if his worst sin was a getting a parking ticket. He is correct: things that are broken need fixing. If Canadians don’t believe that Canada could benefit from fixing, then we are beyond hope and help.
If Poilievre had said “Canada is broken, but not beyond repair”, would that have made a difference in how he is perceived by his entrenched detractors?
Canada is not, nor was it ever broken, yet Canada can, should and will be better. We just have to do it.
I remember when the "Conservatives" were the "Progressive Conservatives". One can be both, i.e. fiscally conservative yet inclusive and caring for all Canadians.
This has been lost by the Conservative Party of now.
I am voting for Mark Carney. The right person for the job at the right time.
Right now.
Oh, and don't even get me started on the far right.... not in my Canada, eh?!